Template talk:Spell probability table - Revision history

Legate at 16:36, 17 December 2024

2024-12-17T16:36:34Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:36, 17 December 2024
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	* NOTE: Using this method, the chance for Bless to appear in slot 2 is ~11.94% (given it did not appear in slot 1)		* NOTE: Using this method, the chance for Bless to appear in slot 2 is ~11.94% (given it did not appear in slot 1)

	Hopefully I am just overcomplicating this and there is some easy trick to come up with the total percentage for a spell to appear (as that is all we really care about) or we cheat and just Monte Carlo this sucker. :)		Hopefully I am just overcomplicating this and there is some easy trick to come up with the total percentage for a spell to appear (as that is all we really care about) or we cheat and just Monte Carlo this sucker. :) --[[User:Legate\|Legate]] ([[User talk:Legate\|talk]]) 01:47, 7 October 2024 (UTC)
	--[[User:Legate\|Legate]] ([[User talk:Legate\|talk]]) 01:47, 7 October 2024 (UTC)

	IMPORTANT NOTE: If we are going to really math this out we should use the actual game values. I believe the table above is just an approximation for what appears in the game files?		IMPORTANT NOTE: If we are going to really math this out we should use the actual game values. I believe the table above is just an approximation for what appears in the game files?

31.0.55.21: /* Hopefully I am mistaken? */

2024-10-07T05:22:51Z

Hopefully I am mistaken?

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:22, 7 October 2024
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	P.S. I suppose we could also suck it up and write a quick program to figure this out...probably pretty easy and/or there is one that already does this somewhere on the web.		P.S. I suppose we could also suck it up and write a quick program to figure this out...probably pretty easy and/or there is one that already does this somewhere on the web.

			* These values are from sptraits

Legate at 01:50, 7 October 2024

2024-10-07T01:50:27Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:50, 7 October 2024
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	* NOTE: Using this method, the chance for Bless to appear in slot 2 is ~11.94% (given it did not appear in slot 1)		* NOTE: Using this method, the chance for Bless to appear in slot 2 is ~11.94% (given it did not appear in slot 1)

	Hopefully I am just overcomplicating this and there is some easy trick to come up with the total percentage for a spell to appear (as that is all we really care about) or we cheat and just Monte Carlo this sucker ~~or suck it up and write a quick program to figure this out~~. :) --[[User:Legate\|Legate]] ([[User talk:Legate\|talk]]) 01:47, 7 October 2024 (UTC)		Hopefully I am just overcomplicating this and there is some easy trick to come up with the total percentage for a spell to appear (as that is all we really care about) or we cheat and just Monte Carlo this sucker. :)
			--[[User:Legate\|Legate]] ([[User talk:Legate\|talk]]) 01:47, 7 October 2024 (UTC)

	IMPORTANT NOTE: If we are going to really math this out we should use the actual game values. I believe the table above is just an approximation for what appears in the game files?		IMPORTANT NOTE: If we are going to really math this out we should use the actual game values. I believe the table above is just an approximation for what appears in the game files?

			P.S. I suppose we could also suck it up and write a quick program to figure this out...probably pretty easy and/or there is one that already does this somewhere on the web.

Legate at 01:48, 7 October 2024

2024-10-07T01:48:00Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:48, 7 October 2024
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	This can be written as SUM(i=0 to i=k) [(1-c%)^i-1 * c%), and simplified to 1 - (1-c%)^k (since probabilities always add up to 1). But apparently this formula is incorrect - why? [[User:Csaros\|Csaros]] ([[User talk:Csaros\|talk]])		This can be written as SUM(i=0 to i=k) [(1-c%)^i-1 * c%), and simplified to 1 - (1-c%)^k (since probabilities always add up to 1). But apparently this formula is incorrect - why? [[User:Csaros\|Csaros]] ([[User talk:Csaros\|talk]])

			=== Hopefully I am mistaken? ===
			* The problem with this formula is that it assumes spells CAN reappear in subsequent spell slots. If we are looking at a Castle Bless spell (10/100), the chance of it appearing in spell slot 2 depends on which spell was selected for slot 1 (and is not equal to the chance of it appearing in slot 1).
			** For example, if the spell selected for slot 1 was Magic Arrow (30/100), the chance for bless to be in slot 2 is 10/70 (since Magic Arrow has already been selected and can't be repeated).
			** If instead View Air was selected for slot 1 (3/100), the chance for bless to be in slot 2 is 10/97 (since View Air has already been selected and can't be repeated).

			Unless I am misunderstanding this or overcomplicating it, I think the only way to calculate the chance for Bless to be in spell slot 2 would be to sum all the possible ways this could happen...i.e. (x/(100-y<sub>1</sub>)(y<sub>1</sub>/100) + (x/(100-y<sub>2</sub>)(y<sub>2</sub>/100) + ... where x is the Bless chance and the y<sub>whatevers</sub> are the chances for all the other spells. This is not bad to calculate for the 2nd spell slot, but gets worse for every additional spell slot that need calculating (as then you need to sum the probabilities for every possible combination of spells in previous slots.
			* NOTE: Using this method, the chance for Bless to appear in slot 2 is ~11.94% (given it did not appear in slot 1)

			Hopefully I am just overcomplicating this and there is some easy trick to come up with the total percentage for a spell to appear (as that is all we really care about) or we cheat and just Monte Carlo this sucker or suck it up and write a quick program to figure this out. :) --[[User:Legate\|Legate]] ([[User talk:Legate\|talk]]) 01:47, 7 October 2024 (UTC)

			IMPORTANT NOTE: If we are going to really math this out we should use the actual game values. I believe the table above is just an approximation for what appears in the game files?

Csaros: /* The real chances */ new section

2024-10-06T13:06:41Z

The real chances: new section

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:06, 6 October 2024
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	: I'm fine with that. I'll leave it up to your discretion. ―[[user:imahero\|imahero]] 08:25, 31 May 2018 (CEST)		: I'm fine with that. I'll leave it up to your discretion. ―[[user:imahero\|imahero]] 08:25, 31 May 2018 (CEST)

			== The real chances ==

			"The values in this table are based on the rough, simplistic formula (1-(1-(x/100))y). The real values will be slightly higher. If someone wants to calculate the real values and edit this table, go for it!"
			I believe you, but why is that? I was certain that we can graph it as following:

			: c% chance for spell to appear in slot 1
			: (1-c%) * c% chance to appear in slot 2, given it did not appear in slot 1 (since spells cant repeat)
			: (1-c%)^2 * c% chance to appear in slot 3, given it did not appear in slots 1 and 2 (since spells can't repeat)
			: . . .
			: (1-c%)^k-1 * c% chance to appear in slot k, given it did not appear in slots [1:k] (since spells can't repeat and if it did appear in slot 1, it wouldn't in 2 and so on).

			This can be written as SUM(i=0 to i=k) [(1-c%)^i-1 * c%), and simplified to 1 - (1-c%)^k (since probabilities always add up to 1). But apparently this formula is incorrect - why? [[User:Csaros\|Csaros]] ([[User talk:Csaros\|talk]])

176.187.218.144: some town names don't fit in one monospaced column, so spread them over two lines to preserve alignment

2024-10-05T21:50:06Z

some town names don't fit in one monospaced column, so spread them over two lines to preserve alignment

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:50, 5 October 2024
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	Tried to find any ingame proof for strange 1-2% inequalities kind of 88/89% for Magic Arrow in Dungeon/Necropolis. The only source I've found was SPTRAITS.TXT file and the whole picture there looks like:		Tried to find any ingame proof for strange 1-2% inequalities kind of 88/89% for Magic Arrow in Dungeon/Necropolis. The only source I've found was SPTRAITS.TXT file and the whole picture there looks like:
	% Chance to gain		% Chance to gain Rampart Inferno Dungeon Fortress
	Name Level Castle ~~Rampart~~ Tower ~~Inferno~~ Necropolis ~~Dungeon~~ Stronghold ~~Fortress~~ Conflux		Name Level Castle Tower Necropolis Stronghold Conflux
	Bless 1 10 5 5 0 0 3 3 5 5		Bless 1 10 5 5 0 0 3 3 5 5
	Bloodlust 1 0 0 0 10 5 5 10 5 5		Bloodlust 1 0 0 0 10 5 5 10 5 5

Csaros: Tabulating moved columns.

2024-10-05T09:44:28Z

Tabulating moved columns.

← Older revision		Revision as of 09:44, 5 October 2024
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	Disrupting Ray 2 6 4 6 12 4 6 6 6 8		Disrupting Ray 2 6 4 6 12 4 6 6 6 8
	Fire Wall 2 4 4 4 12 4 4 4 4 8		Fire Wall 2 4 4 4 12 4 4 4 4 8
	Fortune 2 4 6 4 4 2 2 4 4 2		Fortune 2 4 6 4 4 2 2 4 4 2
	Ice Bolt 2 50 50 6 0 6 6 4 50 25		Ice Bolt 2 50 50 6 0 6 6 4 50 25
	Lightning Bolt 2 4 4 50 20 6 50 50 4 25		Lightning Bolt 2 4 4 50 20 6 50 50 4 25
Line 30:		Line 30:
	Remove Obstacle 2 4 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4		Remove Obstacle 2 4 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4
	Scuttle Boat 2 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4		Scuttle Boat 2 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
	Visions 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 2		Visions 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 2
	Weakness 2 2 2 2 8 4 4 4 4 4		Weakness 2 2 2 2 8 4 4 4 4 4
	Air Shield 3 4 8 8 2 4 4 8 4 4		Air Shield 3 4 8 8 2 4 4 8 4 4
Line 48:		Line 48:
	Teleport 3 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 8		Teleport 3 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 8
	Armageddon 4 0 0 0 5 5 10 0 0 0		Armageddon 4 0 0 0 5 5 10 0 0 0
	Berserk 4 5 5 5 5 10 5 0 0 5		Berserk 4 5 5 5 5 10 5 0 0 5
	Chain Lightning 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10		Chain Lightning 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10
	Clone 4 5 5 10 5 5 5 0 0 10		Clone 4 5 5 10 5 5 5 0 0 10
	Counterstrike 4 5 10 5 5 5 5 0 0 5		Counterstrike 4 5 10 5 5 5 5 0 0 5
	Fire Shield 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5		Fire Shield 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5
	Frenzy 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5		Frenzy 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5
	Inferno 4 5 5 5 10 5 5 0 0 10		Inferno 4 5 5 5 10 5 5 0 0 10
	Meteor Shower 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10		Meteor Shower 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 10
	Prayer 4 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 5		Prayer 4 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 5
Line 64:		Line 64:
	Air Elemental 5 0 0 14 0 16 0 0 0 12		Air Elemental 5 0 0 14 0 16 0 0 0 12
	Dimension Door 5 0 20 14 16 16 16 0 0 13		Dimension Door 5 0 20 14 16 16 16 0 0 13
	Earth Elemental 5 0 16 14 16 16 12 0 0 12		Earth Elemental 5 0 16 14 16 16 12 0 0 12
	Fire Elemental 5 0 0 0 16 0 12 0 0 12		Fire Elemental 5 0 0 0 16 0 12 0 0 12
	Fly 5 0 16 16 16 16 12 0 0 13		Fly 5 0 16 16 16 16 12 0 0 13
Line 71:		Line 71:
	Sacrifice 5 0 0 0 20 16 12 0 0 0		Sacrifice 5 0 0 0 20 16 12 0 0 0
	Titan's Lightning Bolt 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0		Titan's Lightning Bolt 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
	Water Elemental 5 0 16 14 0 0 12 0 0 12		Water Elemental 5 0 16 14 0 0 12 0 0 12

	So I think it will be more correct to use this 100%-per-level form in this tab as well. (Also it will allow us to get rid of 'tower with/without library' ugliness). --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 05:48, 31 May 2018 (CEST)		So I think it will be more correct to use this 100%-per-level form in this tab as well. (Also it will allow us to get rid of 'tower with/without library' ugliness). --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 05:48, 31 May 2018 (CEST)

GroundhogYear: GroundhogYear moved page Template talk:Spell Probability table to Template talk:Spell probability table without leaving a redirect

2021-04-25T20:28:24Z

GroundhogYear moved page Template talk:Spell Probability table to Template talk:Spell probability table without leaving a redirect

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:28, 25 April 2021
(No difference)

Imahero at 06:25, 31 May 2018

2018-05-31T06:25:32Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:25, 31 May 2018
Line 75:		Line 75:
	So I think it will be more correct to use this 100%-per-level form in this tab as well. (Also it will allow us to get rid of 'tower with/without library' ugliness). --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 05:48, 31 May 2018 (CEST)		So I think it will be more correct to use this 100%-per-level form in this tab as well. (Also it will allow us to get rid of 'tower with/without library' ugliness). --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 05:48, 31 May 2018 (CEST)
	Besides, the current numbers are not totally correct: for example we have total 503% instead of 500% for tower without library' 1st lelel spells. --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 06:07, 31 May 2018 (CEST)		Besides, the current numbers are not totally correct: for example we have total 503% instead of 500% for tower without library' 1st lelel spells. --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 06:07, 31 May 2018 (CEST)

			: I'm fine with that. I'll leave it up to your discretion. ―[[user:imahero\|imahero]] 08:25, 31 May 2018 (CEST)

ShushMaster at 04:07, 31 May 2018

2018-05-31T04:07:37Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:07, 31 May 2018
Line 74:		Line 74:

	So I think it will be more correct to use this 100%-per-level form in this tab as well. (Also it will allow us to get rid of 'tower with/without library' ugliness). --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 05:48, 31 May 2018 (CEST)		So I think it will be more correct to use this 100%-per-level form in this tab as well. (Also it will allow us to get rid of 'tower with/without library' ugliness). --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 05:48, 31 May 2018 (CEST)
			Besides, the current numbers are not totally correct: for example we have total 503% instead of 500% for tower without library' 1st lelel spells. --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 06:07, 31 May 2018 (CEST)

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:25, 31 May 2018
Line 75:		Line 75:
	So I think it will be more correct to use this 100%-per-level form in this tab as well. (Also it will allow us to get rid of 'tower with/without library' ugliness). --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 05:48, 31 May 2018 (CEST)		So I think it will be more correct to use this 100%-per-level form in this tab as well. (Also it will allow us to get rid of 'tower with/without library' ugliness). --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 05:48, 31 May 2018 (CEST)
	Besides, the current numbers are not totally correct: for example we have total 503% instead of 500% for tower without library' 1st lelel spells. --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 06:07, 31 May 2018 (CEST)		Besides, the current numbers are not totally correct: for example we have total 503% instead of 500% for tower without library' 1st lelel spells. --[[User:ShushMaster\|ShushMaster]] ([[User talk:ShushMaster\|talk]]) 06:07, 31 May 2018 (CEST)

			: I'm fine with that. I'll leave it up to your discretion. ―[[user:imahero\|imahero]] 08:25, 31 May 2018 (CEST)